Big picture
A fresh Reuters poll suggests the European Central Bank is set for a long pause. Most surveyed economists now see the ECB keeping its deposit rate around two percent at least until the end of 2026, helped by steady growth, low unemployment and inflation that sits close to target. For markets this means the big easing cycle is over and a rate plateau has begun, even as global uncertainty around trade and politics stays high.

Why this matters for FX
A long period of unchanged rates changes how traders think about the euro. If the ECB really keeps policy steady while the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England still debate when and how quickly to cut, yield spreads between the euro area and other regions could stabilise rather than widen further. That takes some pressure off the euro, especially against lower yielding currencies, and can limit the appeal of aggressive short euro trades based purely on policy divergence.

At the same time, a quiet ECB also means that investors hunting for carry may keep favouring currencies where central banks are either slower to cut or still signalling a bias to tighten. For some macro funds that can mean renewed interest in crosses like EURJPY or EURNZD, where the story blends relative yields with local growth prospects. If eurozone data stays resilient and inflation remains near the target, the single currency can behave more like a slow moving store of value than a high beta risk proxy.

Euro, bonds and positioning
The poll points to modest but steady growth in the euro area over the next few years, alongside inflation that hovers just below two percent. That combination supports the idea of euro government bond yields trading in relatively narrow ranges, with investors focused on relative value between core and peripheral debt rather than big directional moves. For FX traders this matters because calmer bond markets usually translate into lower realised volatility in EURUSD and other euro pairs, at least until a new shock appears.

Positioning data already hint that many speculative accounts have reduced outright short euro trades and switched toward more nuanced strategies, such as selling the euro against selected higher yielders while staying neutral versus the dollar. If incoming data confirm the picture drawn by the poll, banks may start to publish more research around range trading in EURUSD and tactical opportunities in the crosses, instead of calling for dramatic multi figure trends.

What traders are watching next
From here the focus shifts to data surprises and communication from ECB officials. Any sign that growth is slowing more sharply than expected or that inflation is drifting too far below target could revive talk of additional easing, even if not in the base scenario. On the other side, stronger activity data or new fiscal packages in major countries such as Germany or France could push markets to price a slightly higher long term neutral rate, giving the euro an extra layer of support.

In the near term, traders will watch how EURUSD behaves around recent support zones and whether euro crosses can build stable ranges rather than sharp spikes. For now the message from the poll is simple. The ECB is signalling stability, and that shifts the FX game away from guessing the next cut toward managing carry, ranges and relative growth stories inside and outside the euro area.