What happened
A fresh Reuters poll shows a majority of economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates again in December, citing a weakening U.S. labor market and lingering data gaps after the prolonged government shutdown.

Why it matters
Rate‑cut odds reset the macro map. A December move would reinforce the downshift in yields, pressure the U.S. dollar, and support risk assets at the margin—though confidence remains fragile until delayed official data fully resumes.

FX & rates takeaways
• USD: Bias tilts softer if the dot‑plot path is marked down; watch DXY and high‑beta crosses.
• Rates: Front‑end Treasury yields most sensitive; curve could bull‑steepen on weaker data prints.
• Gold & Crypto: Lower real yields are supportive, but positioning is jittery after shutdown‑era uncertainty.

What to watch next
• FOMC speakers’ guidance and any recalibration of balance‑sheet runoff.
• Timing/quality of delayed CPI/PPI releases once agencies restart normal publication.
• Claims and private surveys as interim signals.

Sources

• Reuters poll on a December cut: https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-cut-rates-again-december-weakening-job-market-say-most-economists-2025-11-12/
• Reuters column on data “fog” even after shutdown ends: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/end-us-government-shutdown-wont-lift-economic-fog-2025-11-12/
• Gold edges up on rate‑cut bets: https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-hits-near-3-week-peak-rate-cut-bets-end-us-shutdown-2025-11-11/